RUSSIA AND UKRAINE
Russia invaded Ukraine February 2022 and the “conflict” has been going on since then. Summary of the issue is that Russia believes certain parts of Ukraine should be part of Russia and they want to take it back. Also, they don’t like the idea of having a country close to them joining NATO. As they consider that a threat to their sovereignty since NATO is strongly driven by the US. Ukraine specifically wants to join NATO to help protect it from Russian encroachment.
Now, things could have gone differently before the fighting started. For example, Ukraine could have agreed to concede some of the land to Russia is exchange for not having a war. And I also understand why they didn’t. Because say they agree to concede 1%. What’s stopping Russia from coming back to demand for 10% more? Most of the western world decided to sanction Russia heavily, with the hope that it’ll force them to back down. Locked them out of the SWIFT payment system. Stopped buying oil and other export from them. De-banked a lot of Russian entities home and abroad. Threat of force doesn’t seem to deter Russia. And invasion is probably not on the table because Russia possess nuclear weapons and they’ve made it clear they’re willing to use it.
Summary is, every form of escalation option has been explored and status quo remains the same. So? Perhaps it’s time to go the other direction, de-escalation. Neither Russia nor Ukraine and its allies having infinite resources.
Because the question we have to ask ourselves is, what’s the possible endgame scenarios.
Ukraine wins the war
What will that mean? Does it mean Russia ceases to exist? Meaning all Russians are suddenly dead? Does it mean Russian military is heavily decapitated? Meaning they can regroup and come back? And assuming any of this happens? What’s left of Ukraine? How long will it take to get back to where they were before the war?
Russia wins the war
Does this mean Russia annexes the whole of Ukraine? If that happens, will the Ukrainians take that lying down? Does it mean all Ukrainians were evicted from the territory, hence no one to fight for it again? And if that happens, what’s to stop them from coming back to try to fight for their land again?
The only way forward as far as I can tell is a middle ground where Ukraine gives what they can and Russia takes what they’re given.
ISRAEL AND PALESTINE
The Israel-Gaza war started October 2023 when Hamas (Palestinian militant group and political organization that governs the Gaza Strip) launched a large scale surprise attack on Israel. And it’s been going on since then.
The summary is that Israel believes the land is theirs. Palestinians believe the land is theirs. It’s been an argument of who got there first. Palestinians attack Israelis. It teaches the next generation of Israelis to want to have their revenge on Palestinians. Israelis attack Palestinians, it breeds a new generation of Palestinians that hate Israel.
How can the conflict be ended permanently? Each party has been taking turns to escalate for decades and it hasn’t yielded fruit. Perhaps it’s time to try de-escalation? Agree to split the land between the 2, with a clause that whichever party breeches that agreement will have the full force of the UN (or whatever enforcing body) descend on them. While also providing resources for the most affected party to rebuild and re-educate it’s people.
Conflicts like this are going on all over the world. Tribes/ethnic groups fighting over who should own or rule a territory. And after generations of continous escalation, one party needs to take the first step towards de-escalation.
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